Objectives: This study aims to assess simple models from routine investigation for prediction of significant fibrosis (Ishak score > 2) and cirrhosis in CHC patients.
Patients and Method: Our retrospective cohort study studied 100 chronic HCV patients that had liver biopsy. Two indices were assessed, aspartate aminotransferase platelets ratio index (APRI) and FIB-4 to predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis.
Result: APRI was accurate in prediction of significant fibrosis and cirrhosis, with area under ROC: 0.74 and 0.84 respectively. Using one single cut-off, we could predict absence or presence of significant fibrosis in 69.9% and 80.8% of patients respectively. The FIB-4 had higher accuracy in prediction of significant fibrosis and cirrhosis, with area under ROC: 0.75 and 0.85 respectively. Using one single cut-off, we could predict absence or presence of significant fibrosis in 71% and 81% of patients respectively.
Conclusion: This study demonstrated that we can predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with CHC by simple indices using available investigations with a high degree of accuracy. Using APRI and FIB-4 may decrease the need for liver biopsy in CHC patien