he present work was carried out to study the effect of
climate change on the population density of the parlatoria
date scale, P. blanchardii on date palm trees during the
current (2009 to 2013) years and climate change conditions (2050
and 2100 years) at Esna district, Luxor Governorate. In order to
compare the population density of pest under current data
(average from 2009 to 2013 years) and future conditions, collected
data was used to generate climate data under climatic changes
conditions. The future climatic data values of (2050 and 2100
years) were used to predict the population density of P. blanchardii
under climate change individually. Two climate change scenarios
(A1 and B1) were used to assess the consequences of climate
change on population density of pest on date palm trees under
2050 and 2100 years. The obtained results showed that monthly
observations of total population of P. blanchardii had three to four
peaks of seasonal activity per year. Also, the population density of
insect increased in 2050s and 2100s as compared to base year
data (average from 2009 to 2013 years). The percentages of
explained variance (E.V.) indicate that the temperature was
responsible for 70.7, 66.2 and 69.45% of the population changes
of nymphs, adult numbers and total population of insect during the
current year's data, respectively. Expected total population of
insect will be higher at 2100s than expected through the 2050s
under the two scenarios (A1 and B1). Furthermore, scenario A1
(worst case) is higher in numbers of nymphs, adult females and
total population of P. blanchardii as compared with B1 scenario
(best case). Also, scenario A1 at 2100s will gave the highest total
population of insect and scenario B1 at 2050s gave the lowest one.
The results showed that the increased temperatures during 2050s
and 2100s will increase the seasonal activity of P. blanchardii in
Luxor Governorate, Egypt. Generally, the population density of P.
blanchardii increased depending on climate region and climate
change Scenarios.